The November Job Report is a Bloodbath – But is it Time to Panic?

The upcoming U.S. jobs report, expected to release on November 1, might present a distorted view of the employment market due to unusual factors in October. These include a large-scale strike at Boeing and two powerful hurricanes that disrupted economic activities in the Southeast. Economists warn that these factors could create volatility in the report, complicating efforts to analyze the labor market accurately. Federal Reserve members, including Christopher Waller and Mary Daly, caution that the report may temporarily reflect fewer jobs, with Waller estimating a possible impact of up to 100,000 jobs.

Strikes often lead to complex reporting because affected workers may not be counted as unemployed, which further skews employment numbers. The ongoing Boeing strike involves around 33,000 workers across several states, which alone could influence the net job growth for October. Additionally, hurricanes Helene and Milton caused significant business shutdowns and damage across Appalachia and Florida, potentially affecting regional employment temporarily.

Fed officials have also noted the current “inflection point” in the U.S. economy, with data showing more economic resilience than anticipated. San Francisco Fed President, Mary Daly emphasized that singular monthly reports can be misleading and that ongoing economic trends are often more accurate indicators. Lead economist Kayla Bruun from Morning Consult adds that recent positive data on inflation has slightly reduced pressure on the October report, though volatility in employment figures remains closely monitored.

This report’s anticipated anomalies further highlight the importance of balancing economic policy with practical impacts on the labor market. Unpredictable events like strikes and natural disasters reveal the importance of robust domestic policy that strengthens economic stability without excessive reliance on restrictive measures from the Federal Reserve. This approach, which will only come from electing a President like Donald Trump, fosters resilience against both market volatility and natural disruptions.