The economic chess game between President Donald Trump and America’s top trade partners has Wall Street on edge, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick insists there’s nothing to worry about. Despite market turbulence, warnings from analysts, and escalating tariff battles with Canada, Mexico, and China, Lutnick assured Americans that a Trump-led economy will continue to thrive.
No Recession, Just America First Policies
Lutnick appeared on NBC’s Meet the Press to dismiss fears of an economic downturn, responding to host Kristen Welker’s question about recession concerns with an unequivocal “Absolutely not.” He doubled down, stating that Trump’s tariffs are designed to put America in a position of strength, forcing foreign competitors to play by the same rules.
“The president is a winner, he’s going to win for the American people,” Lutnick declared. “There’s going to be no recession in America.”
Trump’s trade policies have been laser-focused on restoring domestic manufacturing, cutting reliance on foreign goods, and tackling border security issues like fentanyl trafficking. His administration recently imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, though those tariffs were briefly paused for diplomatic negotiations.
Lutnick acknowledged that some foreign goods may become more expensive, but argued that American-made products will become more competitive, ultimately benefiting U.S. businesses and workers.
Market Turmoil Sparks Recession Worries
Despite Lutnick’s reassurances, Wall Street isn’t as confident. In recent weeks, markets have been rocked by uncertainty.
- JPMorgan Chase’s prediction model now estimates a 31% probability of an economic downturn, up from 17% in November.
- Goldman Sachs raised its own recession risk to 23%, up from 14% in January.
- The Dow Jones has tumbled more than 1,600 points, the Nasdaq has dropped 1,500 points, and the S&P 500 has slid 300 points since February 10.
While markets react to tariff uncertainty, Trump’s team remains firmly committed to their economic vision—one that prioritizes American industry over short-term market panic.
The Left Sounds the Alarm—But Trump Stays the Course
Naturally, Democrats and liberal economists are in full meltdown mode, warning that Trump’s tariff strategy could trigger economic chaos.
- Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) ranted on X: “Trade wars kill the economy. We all should’ve learned this in history class. But Trump didn’t—now his reckless tariffs are tanking markets, driving up prices, and pushing us toward recession.”
- Former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang echoed the alarmist rhetoric, writing: “Do I think Trump is leading us into a recession through his tariffs, posturing and erratic leadership? Yes. Yes I do.”
- Bloomberg columnist Mohamed A. El-Erian admitted that his probability of a recession has jumped from 10% to as high as 30%, calling it an “unsettling development”.
Trump, however, remains steadfast, calling these concerns part of a temporary “transition period” as America reshapes its economy.
“There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big,” Trump told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo. “We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing… and it takes time.”
What Happens Next?
For now, the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods remain on hold until April 2, as trade negotiations continue. However, Trump has made it clear that tariffs are here to stay if America’s neighbors don’t step up their commitments to border security and fair trade practices.
The battle lines are drawn—Wall Street may be nervous, but Trump is betting that Main Street will reap the rewards.
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