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Although President Joe Biden continues to claim that his economic policies are functioning well, there are several troubling signals suggesting otherwise, notably the crucial consumer spending rate. Simple rule: if individuals are purchasing more items, it often indicates that they are satisfied with the economy and the health of their finances.

When people tighten their belts, it’s because they either do not have enough money to buy more than the necessities, or they’re holding on to their wallets out of dread for the future.

Consumer spending is sometimes referred to as the “engine of the economy”—and it’s running out of gas. According to the Wall Street Journal, people are “beginning to freak out”:

“Three of the last four months have seen a decrease in retail spending. After adjusting for inflation, spending on services, which includes haircuts, rent and the majority of bills, was flat in the month of December, the weakest monthly showing in over a year. As mortgage rates soared, sales of existing houses in the United States plummeted to their point since 2014. The automotive industry had its worst year in more than ten years.”

Consumer spending actually increased during the end of 2020, at the peak of the pandemic, as a stranded populace purchased new TVs, exercise cycles, and laptops to pass the time. Then came the stimulus payments, which were billions of dollars in government money. Who feels bad about treating themselves to a small treat when a large, unexpected check arrives in the mail?

Those days are long gone. Consumers are leery of committing debt on high-interest rate credit cards or taking out a six-percentage-point vehicle loan now that Biden’s inflation has become the standard. Housing sales have dropped because mortgage rates have hit a 20-year record, raising monthly payments by hundreds of dollars or more. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, has indicated that another rate hike is possible this week.

What is the significance of consumer spending? If it does not pick up soon, we may soon find ourselves in a recession.

Consumer spending accounts for around 70% of economic activity. A downshifting consumer is one of the main reasons why academic and business economists estimated the likelihood of a recession in the next year at 61%.

The low unemployment rate of 3.5 percent is one of the few favorable economic indicators. However, digital and retail behemoths such as Amazon, Meta, and Google, among others, have lately announced significant layoffs, while other firms are laying off temporary workers and people are taking much longer to find work.

I’m not an economist, but I don’t believe you need to be one to understand what’s going on here: simply go to your favorite grocery store or restaurant. You are unlikely to go home and make an impulsive Amazon buy for that product you don’t actually need once you have recovered from your shell-shock.

These conditions have been brought on by Biden’s bloated Inflation Reduction Act and drunken sailor spending, and it might become a lot worse before it gets better.

Author: Blake Ambrose

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer predicted that Dems would win debt ceiling talks if Republicans demanded major budget cuts.

“Unfortunately, McCarthy allowed a number of extremely radical people to exercise authority,” Schumer told Politico. “The strategy is to persuade our Republican colleagues in the House that they are flirting with calamity and endangering the American people. And to make that clear to the American people. And I believe we will triumph.”

“There will be no hostage-taking, no brinkmanship. Pass the debt ceiling,” warned the New York Democrat, who helped leverage debt ceiling and budget accords under former President Donald Trump’s term.

In response to Chuck Schumer, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who will have a meeting with President Joe Biden on Wednesday, stated, “When was the last time Biden did a budget? So he wants someone to raise the debt limit, but he won’t tell the American people where the money will go?”

Not all Dems in Schumer’s conference support McCarthy’s tough stance; Sen. Joe Manchin, who met privately with Kevin McCarthy last week, said it is “unreasonable” not to talk.

Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-TX), head of the House Budget Committee, stated that the Republican Party seeks fundamental reforms similar to the 2011 spending limit, often known as the Budget Control Act.

On Monday, twenty-four Senate Republicans sent a letter to President Joe Biden encouraging him to support spending changes that would cut the deficit.

“Americans are acutely aware that their government is not only failing to work for them, but is actually working against them. We do not plan to vote for an increase in the debt ceiling unless fundamental changes are implemented to meet current and future economic realities and manage the out-of-control government policies,” said the Senate Republicans.

Schumer has vowed to raise the debt ceiling without Republicans if he believes they would not negotiate in good faith.

“I’ve always had a hierarchy,” the New York Democrat stated. “We’ll attempt to deal with them when we can, but when they are as extreme as they are, we have to stand firm.”

Author: Scott Dowdy

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he will meet with Joe Biden on Wednesday to discuss preventing a US debt default, but cautioned the president that his refusal to contemplate spending cutbacks in return for lifting the borrowing limit must be reconsidered.

“I want to find a sensible and responsible method to raise the debt ceiling,” the Republican leader said on CBS Sunday’s “Face the Nation.

McCarthy’s meeting with the president will be his first since becoming Speaker of the House of Representatives earlier this month after Republicans took control of the chamber.

Raising the national debt ceiling, which permits the government to pay for previously incurred expenses, is a common occurrence.

Members of the new Republican House majority, however, have threatened to obstruct the normal rubber-stamping of any increase over the current $31.4 trillion.

Biden argues the issue is unresolvable, accusing Republicans of holding “the economy hostage” in order to force a purely political debate on federal spending.

Biden’s official agenda stated only that he would address “a range of problems” with the Republican speaker, underscoring the White House’s inability to even characterize the meeting as a negotiation.

Raising the debt ceiling is “a duty of this country and its leaders to avert economic calamity,” according to White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre. “Congress has always done it, and President Biden wants them to do it again.”

“That is not a debatable point.”

Crisis alert

This sets the scenario for a high-stakes fight in the coming weeks or months.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that a US debt default could spark a worldwide financial disaster, raising borrowing costs and eroding the dollar’s status as an international reserve currency.

To give the two sides more time to work out a solution and prevent a default, the Treasury Department began using “extraordinary measures” on January 19 to temporarily decrease the amount of outstanding debt subject to the limit.

Yellen stated that if no deal is reached, a default may happen as early as June.

While McCarthy expressed confidence that “there won’t be a default,” he emphasized that Democrats were responsible for historically high spending levels within the first two years of Biden’s presidency.

“We can’t keep going down this road,” he stated on CBS.

‘Give us a choice.’

A Democratic congressman from Washington state, Adam Smith, pushed back, claiming Republicans had failed to specify where they would make cuts.

“Right now, Republicans lack a strategy,” he stated on “Fox News Sunday.”

“Their goal, as driven by their party’s radicals, is to scream about spending while failing to increase the debt ceiling and failing to present a plan that says, ‘This is where we’re going to cut.'”

“Give us an alternative, and then we can fight about it,” he continued.

McCarthy, on the other hand, expressed hope that a compromise could be made to avoid default.

“I would like to sit down with the President and hammer out an arrangement so that we can go forward and get back on track,” the speaker added.

“I believe the president will be willing to reach an arrangement with us,” he continued.

According to Jean-Pierre, the meeting on Wednesday will also examine the president’s plan to reduce the US budget deficit “by having the affluent and major businesses pay their fair share,” rather than slashing politically sensitive social spending, as some Republicans propose.

Author: Scott Dowdy

Northrop Grumman Corp., a U.S. defense contractor, predicted full-year sales exceeding Wall Street projections on Thursday, joining a slew of manufacturers profiting from increased worldwide demand for military weapons.

According to Reuters, the United States and its allies have been buying additional weaponry and ammunition and providing billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine since Russia invaded the nation last year.

Northrop presented its new B-21 “Raider” plane during the quarter, the first of a new class of long-range nuclear stealth bombers for the US Air Force.

“We are upgrading our sales forecast for 2023 and anticipate to produce substantial multi-year cash flow growth,” stated Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden.

The Falls Church, Virginia-based business expects 2023 revenues between $38 billion and $38.4 billion, surpassing the average analyst expectation of $37.86 billion, and an adjusted profit of $21.85 to $22.45 for every share, compared to predictions of $22.30.

Northrop Grumman Corp is hardly the only company benefiting from global conflict.

According to data revealed by the State Department, weapon makers in the United States profited handsomely in 2022 as a result of significant arms sales to other nations, particularly Ukraine.

As a result of the Ukraine conflict and rising tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan, arms sales increased from $35.8 billion in 2021 to $51.9 billion in 2022, with direct weapon sales from U.S. manufacturers accounting for an even greater profit, increasing from $103.4 billion in 2021 to $153.7 billion that same year.

Germany, which has bought 35 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jets for $8.4 billion, and Poland, which has invested $6 billion on 250 M1 Abrams tanks, are the two largest customers. Others include Spain, the United Kingdom, and Bulgaria, which just joined NATO.

General Dynamics, which manufactures Abrams tanks and Stryker vehicles, reported $2.18 billion in revenue in its combat systems division in the fourth quarter of 2022, up 15.5 percent from the same period in 2021, with operating profitability increasing by more than 18 percent to $332 million.

According to the Financial Times (FT), heightened interest in the group’s vehicles occurred in the second half of 2022 when countries, notably in the West, committed to raising defense spending in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The US Army granted General Dynamics a $180 million contract to modify Abrams main battle tanks and a $100 million contract to modernize Stryker M-Shorad vehicles in the 4th quarter. Austria also spent $20 million on tracked vehicle modifications, and Luxembourg purchased $75 million in assault vehicles.

General Dynamics also secured $260 million in ammunition orders, some of which may end up in Ukraine.

Author: Blake Ambrose

Even as recessionary worries loom, the American economy expanded at a 2.9% annualized pace in the fourth quarter of 2022, slightly above projections.

According to an early projection from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department, real gross domestic product, which is the total of all final services and goods produced in the economy inflation-adjusted, grew more slowly than the 3.2% annual rate seen in the q3 of 2022. When the economy contracted at a rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and a rate of 0.6% in the q2 of 2022, the country already satisfied the technical definition of a recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Private inventory investment, consumer spending, and government expenditure all increased, which contributed to the expansion. Both imports and exports fell; although the former is added to GDP estimates, the latter is subtracted.

The expansion of the manufacturing, mining, utilities, and construction industries led to an increase in private inventory investment. Due to a decline in new single-family home construction activity and a rise in mortgage rates because of the Federal Reserve monetary policy operations, residential fixed investment also fell.

Despite persistent predictions of a recession, the annualized growth of 2.9% beat experts’ estimates of 2.8%. Given the persistence of supply chain issues and inflationary pressures, the majority of economists anticipate a recession this year. An economic downturn would come after one of the worst years for the stock market in recent memory last year.

According to research by Bank of America Chief Finance Strategist Michael Hartnett, the economy will contract in the first half of the year before markets find a “far more firm footing.” However, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, there are “good grounds to predict robust growth in coming quarters” according to the company’s analysts.

The Biden administration has come under fire for allegedly making economic bottlenecks worse. Since taking office, the commander in chief has halted Keystone XL Pipeline expansions and leased less federal property for oil drilling than any of his predecessors since World War II. Public records also reveal that the admin’s task group on the supply chain problem had little to no impact since Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg took a two-month paternity leave and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack never showed up to meetings.

Even when major technology companies announced widespread layoffs, Biden “inherited an economic catastrophe and transformed it into the biggest two years of employment growth on record,” according to White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre last week. She continuously shot down worries that the cuts may portend more unemployment throughout the economy. “We can see that the President’s economic strategy is effective. And I believe that’s crucial as well,” she added. “Is there still work to be done? There is always more work to be done, as you may also hear from us.”

As annual inflation dropped from 7.1% in Nov. to 6.5% in Dec., price levels have calmed in several places. Despite the fact that price rises are still far higher than the 2% annual average observed before the lockdown-induced recession, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted that inflation “has really been fairly modest, quite low for the previous six months or so.”

Author: Steven Sinclaire

As the war gets close to the one-year milestone, President Biden said Wednesday afternoon that he has authorized sending 31 Abram tanks to Ukraine.

“As springtime draws near, Ukrainian soldiers are striving to protect the ground they control and getting ready for more counteroffensives to free their territories. In the very near future, they must be able to defeat Russia’s shifting strategy and tactics on the battlefield. They need to be better at navigating broad terrain and improving their maneuverability, and they also need to develop durable defenses that can withstand long-term Russian aggression,” according to Biden.

He continued, “Today, I’m declaring that the United States will supply 31 Abram tanks to Ukraine, which is the same as one Ukrainian battalion.”

Although Biden did not address the price tag, the Department of Defense soon after his speech disclosed a $400 million package in the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).

The Department of Defense stated in a news release that “this $400 million USAI package signifies the beginning of a contractual process to supply further capabilities to Ukraine.”

Along with 31 Abrams main combat tanks, eight tactical vehicles for equipment recovery, support equipment, and vehicles, and funds for training, maintenance, and sustainment, the package would also include ammunition for 120mm rounds.

Since January 2021, the United States has pledged $27.8 billion in security aid to Ukraine. Since then, the U.S. has invested over $113 billion in Ukraine altogether.

“As quickly as feasible,” Biden promised, Ukrainian forces would get training in logistics, maintenance, and sustainment, as well as the replacement parts and tools required to keep tanks operational.

“Delivering these tanks to the field,” he added, “will take time.” He and senior defense officials who briefed reporters earlier did not specify when the tanks would arrive or when Ukrainian military would get tank operation training.

“Another Forever War — while Communist China runs rampant, undaunted,” tweeted Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO).

Although defense experts have long voiced doubts that the advanced tanks were the best equipment for Ukrainian soldiers at the time owing to the challenging training and maintenance needs, Biden claimed that Secretary Of defense Lloyd Austin had endorsed the action.

However, the decision was made under strong international pressure to deliver the tanks.

A break in the deadlock among NATO allies on whether to send sophisticated tanks to Ukraine was signaled earlier in the day when Germany declared it would send 14 Leopard 2 tanks there. The United States had encouraged Germany to provide Leopard 2 tanks, but Germany was hesitant to do so without a guarantee that the United States would also supply Abrams tanks.

By declaring, “We wanted to ensure we were all together,” Biden refuted claims that Germany had compelled him to send the tanks.

Zelensky’s birthday is today, according to Biden, who also sent him birthday greetings.

“We are with you for as long as it takes, Mr. President,” he continued.

Author: Steven Sinclaire

Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) claimed House Republicans are “adamant” about preserving entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare while legislators debate the debt ceiling.

Banks’ remarks came after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen notified House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) last week that the United States had reached its $31.3 trillion debt cap. Yellen assured McCarthy that she would take “exceptional steps” to keep the US from defaulting on its debt.

According to Banks, House Republicans have a “responsibility to use the majority the American people gave us to address genuine spending reforms.”

“So The debt ceiling sets up a chance for us to have a meaningful dialogue. I hope Democrats will come to the table,” added Banks. “I’m hoping President Biden will come to the table. I hope that Senate Leader Schumer and the Senate Democrats would sit down with House Republicans and see where we can all agree. That is the essence of a negotiation.”

“Do you want Medicare and Social Security to be discussed as part of these talks?” Costa inquired of Banks.

“No,” Banks said decisively. “I can speak for the great majority of Republicans in the majority: I don’t think any of us would like to touch Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, or other programs on which seniors and others rely today or will eventually depend on.”


“Now, there’s an intense effort in the Republican Party, as strong as I’ve ever seen, not to touch those programs. We may make modifications in the future — far into the future — to safeguard systems like Social Security for future generations,” Banks continued.

Banks recommended slashing spending for “bloated” federal departments during the pandemic.

“I believe those are areas where we could begin, but the simple approach today is to look at where we can minimize needless spending,” Banks stated. “I mean, trillions of dollars were spent in the name of COVID — some of it to address the pandemic, but a lot of it didn’t have anything to do with the pandemic — that inflated every single government department.”

Banks has warned that unless Congress makes serious reforms, the next generation of Americans would “carry the weight of a $32 trillion, and increasing, national debt. And if we simply punt on it and approve a clean debt ceiling hike once more,” he said, “then my daughter’s generation, our kids and grandkids, will watch that $32 trillion national debt rise to 40, 50 trillion, and beyond.”

Banks’ remarks reflect former President Donald Trump’s advice to House Republicans to take entitlement programs off the agenda during debt ceiling talks.

“Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to sacrifice a single cent from Social Security or Medicare to help pay for Biden’s irresponsible spending spree, which is more reckless than anything our country has ever done or had,” Trump stated.

Author: Blake Ambrose

In the United States, a majority of potential voters said they would rather have the government shut down than have Congress approve additional spending, according to a poll.

According to a Rasmussen Reports study, 56 percent of respondents would prefer a partial government shutdown until Congress can decrease or maintain spending levels. Only 34% answered they would like to see the reverse, increased spending levels, in order to avoid a government shutdown.

Furthermore, when polled by party, 56 percent of independent respondents and 73 percent of Republicans stated they would prefer a partial government shutdown until they can figure out how to reduce or keep spending the same, while only 41 percent of Democrats agreed. However, more Democrats (50%) want more expenditure in order to prevent a government shutdown.

This survey comes at a time when House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the other Republicans in the House will soon have to begin negotiations with Democrats in order to raise the debt ceiling. Conservative Republicans in the House, on the other hand, have been adamant about cutting spending before lifting the debt ceiling.

In comparison, the same survey that was conducted four years earlier under former President Donald Trump indicated that 54 percent of respondents supported a shutdown when Dems fought over the debt ceiling, while just 31 percent said that they wanted the reverse.

The study also indicated that the majority of respondents believe there is a spending problem, with 66% feeling it is due to “politicians’ inability to curb government spending,” while 21% believe “taxpayers are more to blame for the magnitude of the deficit.”

Furthermore, when separated by political party, a majority of each political party said the deficit was caused by “politicians’ refusal to curb government spending,” including 77 percent of Republicans, 52 percent of Dems, and 71 percent of independent respondents.

Pulse Opinion Research, LLC, on behalf of Rasmussen Reports, carried out the poll from January 18 through January 22 with a total of 900 potential voters from the United States. The survey has a three percent margin of error and a confidence level of 95 percent.

Author: Steven Sinclaire

The Department of Defense provided a $3 million multi-year grant to EcoHealth Alliance, the firm at the focus of the Wuhan lab leak theory.

According to USA Spending, the official source for spending statistics for the United States government, the Department of Defense will provide $3 million to EcoHealth Alliance beginning December 12, 2022 and ending December 11, 2025.

The multimillion-dollar award will be used by EcoHealth Alliance to “lower the possibility of viral spillover from animals in the Philippines.”

The government financing was described in the Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance (CFDA), commonly known as Assistance Listings, as part of scientific study targeted at “combating weapons of mass destruction.”

The program’s goal is as follows:

“To encourage and promote basic, applied, and advanced research at academic or research institutions, nonprofit organizations, and private businesses that increase fundamental knowledge and understanding of the sciences with a focus on finding fresh approaches to combatting or avoiding the use of WMD.”


The money was supplied directly by the Defense Threat Reduction Entity (DTRA), a Department of Defense agency.

The DTRA’s mission is to “provide cross-cutting solutions to allow the Department of Defense, the United States Government, and international partners to Deter all strategic attacks against the United States and its allies; Reduce, prevent, and counter WMD and other emerging threats; and Prevail in crisis and conflict against WMD-armed adversaries.”

EcoHealth Alliance has received federal support since 2008, according to USA Spending. The US government donated roughly $25 million to EcoHealth Alliance in 2020. EcoHealth Alliance got $79.4 million in total, roughly 48% of which came from Assistance Listings with the goal of “combatting weapons of mass destruction.” The DTRA has supplied more than 52% of EcoHealth Alliance’s total government financing.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), led by Dr. Anthony Fauci, granted EcoHealth Alliance $3.3 million in funding over five years in September.

The NIH grant will go toward a study that will look at the “prospect for future bat coronavirus emergence in Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam.”

EcoHealth Alliance’s Peter Daszak previously performed contentious bat coronavirus research at China’s state-run Wuhan Institute of Virology. EcoHealth Alliance has been accused of conducting gain-of-function research at the infamous Chinese biosafety level 4 lab. Some have blamed the alleged Wuhan lab leak on EcoHealth Alliance’s research.

Author: Scott Dowdy

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Saturday that House Republicans seeking to negotiate spending cuts in the midst of a potential debt ceiling fight are “extremely reckless.”

In a recent letter, the official told House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other members that the debt ceiling, an arbitrary maximum on the national debt set by Congress, had exceeded the statutory limit of approximately $31.4 trillion as of this week. Yellen told the Associated Press that House Republicans who want to slash spending risk creating a “self-imposed tragedy in the United States and the global economy.”

“This is about paying debts that have already been incurred by decisions made by this and previous Congresses, not about additional spending,” she explained, adding that long-term spending cannot be “negotiated over whether or not we’re going to pay our bills.”

Yellen, who is currently touring multiple African countries as part of a trip focused on the continent’s economic development, described the position of delaying a debt ceiling hike until more spending cuts are implemented as “very irresponsible,” adding that the position may have serious consequences even before “the day of reckoning.” According to her letter to members of congress, new investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund have been tentatively suspended; the Treasury Department’s “drastic measures” to keep the government solvent are projected to last until June.

Yellen predicts that Congress would defuse the situation because they recognize the economic disaster that would result from the federal government defaulting on its commitments. Aside from the prospect of a default, a lack of confidence in the government’s capacity to repay debt might prompt “markets to get pretty anxious,” she added.

Over the last few decades, the federal government has depended on large budget deficits to fund deficit-driven spending. According to Treasury Department data, Social Security, Medicare, and other health initiatives accounted for 46% of the federal budget during the previous fiscal year, even as maintenance expenditures on the national debt skyrocketed owing to the current surge in interest rates across the economy.

Yellen, who formerly served as the head of the Federal Reserve, stated last week in another warning that “failure to satisfy the government’s responsibilities” would result in “irreparable harm” to both the domestic economy and the international financial system. “Presidents and Treasury Secretaries from both parties have said unequivocally that the government must not default on any United States commitment,” she wrote. “However, the implementation of exceptional measures allows the government to satisfy its duties for a short period.”

As McCarthy prepares to meet with President Joe Biden to discuss debt ceiling discussions, House Republicans have asked their Democratic counterparts to look into possible spending cutbacks. In a statement, Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) stated that “reckless spending” had resulted in “the biggest jump in prices in forty years” and resultant reductions in living standards.

“Instead of criticizing his political opponents, President Biden should be using this time working with House Republicans to handle the debt issue in a way that enforces some budgetary sense. Otherwise, the President is only planning America’s next financial disaster,” he added. “We can find practical ways to stop wasteful spending, stabilize the American economy, and guarantee we pay our debt obligations.”

Author: Blake Ambrose

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