In September, the main economic index fell again. This was the 18th month in a row that it fell, and it was thought to be a good indicator of how the economy would do in the future.
The Conference Board stated that its measure of leading indicators went down by 0.7% over the past month. The ten parts that make up the index are thought to show where the economy is going in the future.
According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Top Manager, Business Cycles Index at The Conference Board, “the LEI for the US fell again in September. This makes it fifteen months in a row that it has gone down since April 2022. In September, fewer first-time applications for unemployment benefits were more than balanced out by negative or flat contributions from nine out of the index’s ten parts. The six-month growth rate in the LEI is a little less negative, and the recession warning did not go off, but it still shows that the economy may be weak in the coming months.”
Since things are going down less quickly now, Zabinksa-La Monica says this study did not sound the economic alarm. The measure is down 3.4% over the six months from March to September 2023. This is less than the 4.6% drop it experienced over the course of the last six months.
The recession alarm did not go off, but the Conference Board believes that we will enter a recession early in the coming year.
“Even though rising interest rates and high prices are putting pressure on the US economy, it has shown a lot of strength so far. However, The Conference Board thinks this trend won’t last for much longer, and a mild recession is expected in the first part of 2024,” Zabinska-La Monica stated.
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