So here we go again. Instead of Election Day, get ready for Election Week…or more like Election Month. It’s looking more and more likely that this year’s election will have us all in limbo long after the votes are in, just like we’ve seen in 2020 and, way back, in 2000. Only this time, the stakes are even higher, and everyone knows it. Wall Street, for one, isn’t thrilled about the “counting marathon” that might hit us November 5.
Ed Clissold, a big-name U.S. equity strategist at Ned Davis Research, is already warning investors to brace themselves. According to him, the markets don’t exactly love all the uncertainty that comes with contested elections. “The market has generally declined amid the political uncertainty, but not in every case,” he says. Some years, he argues, the economic outlook outweighs the chaos. So basically, he’s saying there’s no way of knowing if the market will stay strong, crash, or do anything in between. In other words, it’s a crapshoot.
Then there’s David Rosenberg, a financial economist who took to social media to remind everyone of the chaos that erupted in 2000, when Bush vs. Gore took an entire month and a Supreme Court intervention to resolve. Rosenberg expects the same thing this year—only worse. “This will be the mother of all contested elections,” he warns, expecting recounts, legal fights, and probably a few sleepless nights for investors.
Even more entertaining, Chris Krueger from TD Cowen is calling it “election winter,” saying that unless someone wins in a true landslide, we’ll be swimming in recounts and late-arriving ballots until mid-December. And honestly, why shouldn’t we be surprised? The Democrats have spent the last four years fine-tuning “protocols” in places like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. So sure, maybe the vote-counting will be faster. But given the close races and tight polling, there’s no telling when we’ll get the final result.
Then there’s Henrietta Treyz from Veda Partners, the optimist who thinks this year might look more like 2016 than 2020. She says the last few years of lawsuits, recounts, and election “overhauls” will help us get the results faster. But here’s the thing: We’re not buying it. When you have the left changing the rules as they go and claiming “democracy,” it’s hard to imagine a clean, straightforward election night. The left’s obsession with vote-counting “overhauls” just means we’re likely to see new twists in their endless election games.
America’s elections have become an endless marathon, where Election Day no longer means anything. Thanks to endless rule changes, recounts, and delays from the left, what should be a one-day event turns into weeks of chaos. But we know that America is fed up with the left’s games, and this year, the voters are ready to make a statement. Either way, the savvy investor needs to brace themselves for the rocky weeks ahead.
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